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☆ 'Volatility could explode': The S&P 500 is ripe for a correction as tensions in the Middle East flare and inflation sticks, experts warn. Here's what to do with your money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.

Persons: —, that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ UBS says the AI-driven tech rally 'still has room to run' as the sector is set to see explosive growth — and shares 2 trades to benefit from the upside potential
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But can the momentum continue for AI stocks continue? But our estimates could prove to be conservative in light of recent developments like Open AI's text-to-video model Sora and management commentary from Nvidia," Marcelli said. Both Microsoft and Alphabet reported increased cloud revenue growth thanks to AI, and revenue from their AI models and applications should see significant growth in the next five years, she said. "Given the strong AI-related tailwinds, we see 18% year-over-year earnings growth in 2024 for the global tech sector, including information technology and internet," Marcelli said. 2 trades to ride the AI waveTo take advantage of further AI upside, Marcelli said UBS prefers two market subsectors: semiconductors and software.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Nvidia, Business, UBS, UBS Americas, Microsoft, VanEck Semiconductor, Invesco Semiconductors, Software Sector, P Software & Services, Big Tech

☆ What's next for the S&P 500 after hitting a record? Nvidia is the key
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Where markets go next may well depend on how Nvidia does after going forward. "The answer here will depend on NVDA," Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report wrote in a Thursday note. "The stock is at an all-time high ... and if it can hold (or extend) this rally ... it'll imply that tech can help lead this market higher." Nvidia and other artificial intelligence darlings, including Meta Platforms, powered the broader market last year, while other stocks underperformed. I'd rather take it elsewhere in something that hasn't had as much of a run as Nvidia has."

Persons: Tom Essaye, Essaye, Patrick McDonough, Solita Marcelli, Charles Ashley, hasn't, Said PGIM's McDonough Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Nasdaq, VanEck Semiconductor, Federal Reserve, Meta, UBS Global Wealth Management, Catalyst Funds

☆ Nvidia's blowout earnings could fuel interest in this 'Magnificent Seven' ETF
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 4% and had already seen 280,000 shares traded as of Thursday afternoon, putting in on track to potentially set a new fund record for daily volume. The Roundhill fund has a simple structure that is resonating with some investors eager to buy even more of the Magnificent Seven. MAGS YTD mountain Roundhill's Magnificent Seven ETF tracks major tech stocks. In addition to capitalizing on investor demand for ways to play the megacap tech stocks, the Roundhill ETF is also a case study in fund marketing. So Roundhill pivoted out of "Big Tech" and into the trendier "Magnificent Seven."

Persons: BIGT, Tesla, MAGS, David Mazza, Mazza, Andrew Stewart Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Big Tech, Roundhill Investments, Exchange Capital Management Locations: Americas

☆ 'There's very little margin for error': 7 strategists explain why the Goldilocks narrative is in trouble — but these 8 investments are still worth making now
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.

Persons: —, ”, Solita Marcelli, “, Sameer Samana, Steve Sosnick, It’s, Steven Wieting, “ We’ve, Crit Thomas, “ I’m, ” Thomas, We’re, Chris Galipeau, ” Galipeau, ” Sosnick, we’ve, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, ” Sonders, there’s, Clark Bellin, he’s, ” Bellin, you’re, Stocks, Samana, won’t, Thomas, Wieting, Bellin, “ They’ve, they’re Organizations: Service, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Interactive, Citi Global Wealth’s, Touchstone Investments, Franklin Templeton Institute, Citi Global Wealth, Bellwether Wealth Locations: Wells Fargo, Samana, ” Samana, Galipeau

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. But, for now, the outlook continues to appear better for the United States than many other big economies. Even China, whose economy is growing faster than the United States’, is under heavy pressure. Some pillars of support for consumer spending may be weakening.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Biden, ”, Diane Swonk, They've, Catherine Mann, Morgan Stanley, Chris Kempczinski, he’s, ” ___ Rugaber Organizations: U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, KPMG, “, Federal, British, Bank of England, Bank of, Japan, Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, U.S, Government, Americas, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, China

☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ A Goldilocks economy could be coming, but a key piece of the puzzle remains elusive
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.

Persons: —, hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London

☆ Small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been since 2000 and are an under-the-radar way to profit from AI, a strategy chief predicts. Here are 5 ways to play their upcoming rally.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.

Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft

☆ These are the 30 best investments to make now as US stocks rally to record highs, according to bullish strategists at 3 large investment firms
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Lerner noted that such occurrences are correlated with near-term pain as well as sizable forward returns. Another encouraging omen for US stocks is their successful track record in the second year of a bull market, as Belski noted last fall. Furthermore, since the financial crisis, Belski noted that stocks fell in the first month eight times but have ended the year in the green in six of those years. BMO Capital Markets30 investments to make during a rallyIn addition to sharing market commentary, strategists at BMO, Truist, and UBS outlined investment ideas as stocks enter uncharted territory. UBS spotlighted high-quality stocks with healthy balance sheets and sound earnings that drive profitability, especially since economic growth is slowing.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Keith Lerner, Brian Belski, Lerner, Belski, who've Organizations: Business, BMO, Truist, UBS, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital, UBS spotlighted Locations: Swiss, Europe

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

☆ Buy these 33 top-rated stocks to build a diversified, downturn-resistant portfolio in 2024, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economic growth should persist in 2024, albeit at a weaker pace, according to top strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). "We do see the savings rate — the recent savings rate — as unsustainably low, and we expect it to rise over time," said Brian Rose, a senior economist and investment strategist at UBS GWM, during the webinar. "And really, the base of the economy depends very heavily on what happens to the savings rate." Rose continued: "If the savings rate just gradually drifts higher over time, then we can have a soft landing. 33 top stocks across sectorsWhile UBS is constructive about 2024, its strategists think investors should prepare for anything.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Brian Rose, Rose, there's, Marcelli, Daniel Scansaroli, Nicolas Le Roux, Le Roux, financials Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, US, UBS GWM, Federal Reserve, UBS GWM's, Companies Locations: Americas, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, China, Japan, Australia

☆ UBS projects inflation is coming to an end, but that's 'little comfort to households,' chief financial analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The prolonged period of high inflation may finally be coming to an end, according to an analysis of recent data by UBS global wealth management. In October, the consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 3.2% from 12 months earlier, down from 3.7% in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The report marked a significant improvement on the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022. “By next spring, inflation will have slowed to a comfortable level for both the Fed and investors,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer of the Americas for UBS Wealth Management. “The strain on household budgets is real.”

Persons: ”, Solita Marcelli, Greg McBride Organizations: UBS, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Americas, UBS Wealth Management, Finance

☆ Take advantage of this stock market correction and another quarter of strong earnings by making these 10 moves now, according to top strategists at 4 investment firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.

Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte

☆ Here are 7 ways investors can be greedy while others are fearful as China's potential property crisis unfolds, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here are the seven smartest ways to invest in Chinese markets, according to UBS. Stimulus should keep Chinese stocks from sinkingHowever, UBS believes that plenty of pain has already been priced into Chinese stocks. Naturally, China's property market turmoil has inspired comparisons to the US housing market bubble that led to the global financial crisis, but Yu is confident that such fears are overblown. "The government has the toolkit to minimize the risk of having something that is systematically disastrous in the financial markets," Yu said. If China's growth exceeds expectations, companies in the consumer discretionary and materials sectors will be among the biggest beneficiaries, according to UBS.

Persons: David Kelly, Xingchen Yu, Solita Marcelli, Yu, there's Organizations: US, UBS, Asset Management Locations: China, Shanghai, People's Republic, Swiss, Beijing, Taiwan

☆ Looming inflation report could hold an unpleasant surprise for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Stick with Treasurys even after Fitch downgrades U.S., UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Government bonds are still a sound investment, according to UBS. Fitch attributed the downgrade Tuesday to an "erosion of governance," referring to political standoffs around the debt limit, as well as growing debt levels. The firm expects government debt to reach 118.4% of gross domestic product by 2025. US10Y US2Y YTD line U.S. 2 year and 10 year yields Bond yields move opposite to their prices. She noted that the added benefit of having U.S. Treasurys is they offer the potential for capital appreciation if investors become concerned about slowing growth.

Persons: Fitch, Marcelli, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, ., AAA, UBS Global Wealth Management, Treasury, Federal Locations: Americas

☆ Here are the 9 smartest ways to invest in artificial intelligence right now, according to Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Here's how Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS recommend investing in AI. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are more optimistic about AI stocks after each expressed hesitations earlier this year as shares of companies tied to the technology exploded higher. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has dismissed concerns that AI stocks are in a bubble. "Inevitably, the market will compare AI to the dot-com boom," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim in a July report. As for chipmakers, Morgan Stanley agreed with Bank of America that the path forward is bifurcated.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Marcelli, Art Cashin, Michael Hartnett, Shawn Kim, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Vivek Arya, Wilson Organizations: Wall, Bank of America, UBS, Americas, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, Bank of, Accenture, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Consumer Locations: California, Snowflake, OpenAI

There are two likely scenarios: The Fed raises its fed funds rate, but Powell signals the inflation fight is far from over. Market rates are likely to shoot higher, benefiting a select group of stocks highlighted below, while causing the broader market to decline. In order to do this, we used the short-term bond fund, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, as our proxy for the bond market. Since rates increase when bond prices fall this gives us the stocks that could win today if rates increase. If rates move higher on the Fed, Primerica can charge higher rates for its insurance and financial products.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Marcelli Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reserve, CNBC, Russell, Treasury Bond ETF, Primerica, PayPal

☆ Eurozone Inflation Slows, but Underlying Price Pressures Persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Patricia Cohen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Growth is expected to pick up, but further increases in interest rates could act as a brake on the economy. France’s annual inflation rate fell to 5.3 percent in June, from 6 percent in May. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, saw a rise in its annual inflation rate to 6.8 percent, up from 6.3 percent in May. Inflation rates in Germany are expected to resume their fall in September. After adjusting for inflation, profits were above their prepandemic level while workers’ compensation was 2 percent below the trend in the first quarter of this year.

Persons: Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, ’, Giorgia, “, Lucrezia Reichlin, Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, Price, Lagarde Organizations: International Monetary Fund, London Business School, Oxford Economics, Ukraine — Locations: Sintra , Portugal, France, Italy, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ Market momentum wanes heading into the final week of June after monster rally in the first half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Against this backdrop, investors will head into the final week of June with a relatively light economic calendar. However, those few data sets could provide investors with clues on how the market will fare going into the second half. Key inflation data ahead Of note next week is the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Reports to watch out for include Tuesday's new home sales and Thursday's pending home sales data, both for May. Elsewhere, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky warned this week the downside for tech names could be as "equally impressive" as their rally.

Persons: Jerome Powell, annualized, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, that's, Megan Horneman, Stephen Suttmeier, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Art Hogan, Hogan, Mills, Paychex Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Global Wealth Management, Americas, UBS, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Verdence Capital Advisors, Bank of America, Dow, Riley Wealth Management, Fed, Walgreens, Micron, Nike, Constellation Brands

☆ Wall Street is worried the stock market is already overvalued
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the stock market is just trying to claw its way out of a bear market, multiple Wall Street firms on Thursday raised concerns that equities are already overvalued. Following a breakout in the past month, the S & P 500 is up more than 20% from its October low and is at a 13-month high. But while an official bull market is not yet confirmed (S & P 500 needs to hit a new all-time high for that), the stock market may already be overvalued, some major strategists said. .SPX ALL mountain S & P 500 long term The S & P 500 is trading at forward price-earnings ratio of 18.8, compared to the average valuation of 15.4 times the last four decades, according to UBS. Nevertheless, normally uber-bullish Wall Street is having trouble seeing boom times ahead for equity investors with valuations already so high.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, annualized, Jonathan Golub, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Global Wealth Management, Americas, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse

☆ 'Fundamentals still matter': A portfolio manager at a firm managing $17 billion warns stocks are due to sink 15% as AI hype fuels the current rally and drowns out recession alarm bells
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.

Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, …, Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group

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